Monday, June 16, 2008

Kaboose and US Autoparts - Pass

Reviewed US Autoparts and Kaboose today, both are passes.

US Autoparts is a pass because:
1. Poor operating metrics - management has missed guidance two quarters in a row and inventory is increasing faster than sales
2. Poor visibility - it's not clear how it's growing its top line due to obfuscation with the acquisition of Partsbin.
3. Management? - Not clear how Shane Evangelist (a superstar at Blockbuster) will translate to managing autoparts. Seems this is a block-and-tackle job at this point.

Kaboose is a pass because:
1. Really low traffic: Kaboose, the flagship site had 1.5MM uniques, down from a year prior. They spent $140mm acquiring Bounty, a UK site, that had 153K uniques in Apr 08 (per Nielsen UK).
2. Stiff competition: Babyzone (600K uniques) will be going up against Babycenter (2.7mm uniques with higher nearly twice as many pv's per unique), J&J's website.

I don't feel Kaboose has take-out potential, like CNET and Greenfield had. CNET is a bellweather with unquestionably solid traffic, though their forward growth was hazy. Greenfield at the Ciao asset with 50% yoy comp shop growth. Kaboose?

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